Program
4E. Testing eruption forecast and open issues All abstracts
| Oral presentation Date/Room/Chair |
July 20 PM1 (14:30-16:15) | Room A3 | Mark Bebbington, Gill Jolly, Laura Sandri |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 20 PM2 (16:30-18:15) | Room A3 | Micol Todesco, Andrew Bell, Chris Kilburn | |
| Poster presentation | July 21 Core Time (13:30-15:00) | ||
| Convener | Mark Bebbington, Andrew Bell, Micol Todesco | ||
| Date/Time | No. | Title | Authors | Presenter | Page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 20 14:30-14:45 |
0P1_4E-O1 Invited |
Short-term eruption forecasting with BET_EF: applications and results | Laura Sandri, Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, Other | Laura Sandri | 1179 |
| July 20 14:45-15:00 |
0P1_4E-O2 | Testing the efficacy of volcano alert levels | Annie E.G. Winson, Fidel Costa Rodriguez, Gordon Woo, Other | Annie E.G. Winson | 1180 |
| July 20 15:00-15:15 |
0P1_4E-O3 | An assessment of volcanic unrest in the 21st century: pre-eruptive processes and timescales of reactivation | Georgia Phillipson, Joachim Gottsmann | Georgia Phillipson | 1181 |
| July 20 15:15-15:30 |
0P1_4E-O4 | Assessing probabilistic forecasts of volcanic eruption onsets | Mark S Bebbington | Mark S Bebbington | 1182 |
| July 20 15:30-15:45 |
0P1_4E-O5 | RETROACTIVE APPLICATION OF FORECAST FAILURE METHOD FOR PREDICTING MERAPI ERUPTION 2010 USING DEFORMATION AND SEISMIC DATA | Subandriyo, Nurnaning Aisyah, Agus Budi Santoso, Other | Subandriyo | 1183 |
| July 20 15:45-16:00 |
0P1_4E-O6 | Eruption forerunners from multi-parameter monitoring and the corresponding predictability skills (Piton de la Fournaise) | Agathe Schmid, Jean Robert Grasso | Jean Robert Grasso | 1184 |
| July 20 16:00-16:15 |
0P1_4E-O7 Invited |
Real-time forecasting of catastrophic rock failure and implications for predictability of volcanic eruptions | Ian G Main, Andrew F Bell, Rosa Filguera, Other | Ian G Main | 1185 |
| July 20 16:30-16:45 |
0P2_4E-O8 | Identifying the form of precursory trends before eruptions: reducing uncertainty with rock-physics experiments | Richard Wall, Christopher Kilburn, Philip Meredith | Richard Wall | 1186 |
| July 20 16:45-17:00 |
0P2_4E-O9 Invited |
Long swarms and short swarms | Stephen R McNutt | Stephen R McNutt | 1187 |
| July 20 17:00-17:15 |
0P2_4E-O10 | Predicting the unpredictable: using families of low frequency seismicity to forecast volcanic unrest | Rebecca O. Salvage, Jurgen W. Neuberg | Rebecca O. Salvage | 1188 |
| July 20 17:15-17:30 |
0P2_4E-O11 | On the self-similarity of rifting episodes | Luigi Passarelli, Eleonora Rivalta | Luigi Passarelli | 1189 |
| July 20 17:30-17:45 |
0P2_4E-O12 | Simplifying assumptions in volcano modeling: are we missing something crucial? | Chiara P Montagna, Antonella Longo, Paolo Papale, Other | Chiara P Montagna | 1190 |
| July 20 17:45-18:00 |
0P2_4E-O13 | On the unrest and eruptive behaviour of large calderas, with examples from Campi Flegrei | Paolo Papale, Giovanni Chiodini, Micol Todesco | Paolo Papale | 1191 |
| July 20 18:00-18:15 |
0P2_4E-O14 Invited |
Rumbles and mumbles: what we know we know - and don't know - about recent volcanic activity in New Zealand | Nicolas Fournier | Nicolas Fournier | 1192 |
| July 21 Poster |
1W_4E-P1 | Tornillos modeled as self-oscillations of fluid filling a cavity: implications for the 1992-1993 activity at Galeras volcano, Colombia | Kostas I. Konstantinou | Kostas I. Konstantinou | 1193 |
| July 21 Poster |
1W_4E-P2 | Testing the performance limits of eruption forecasting models using synthetic precursory data | Andrew F Bell, Mark Naylor, Ian G Main | Andrew F Bell | 1194 |
| July 21 Poster |
1W_4E-P3 | The challenge in quantifying magma input and output to active volcanoes–an example from Kilauea | Michael P. Poland, A. Jeff Sutton, Tim R. Orr | Michael P. Poland | 1195 |